Bitcoin Analyst Admits His Rate-Hike Thesis 'Was Not Rooted in the Data'

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen publicly conceded that his bearish rate-hike thesis regarding Bitcoin was not supported by historical data, acknowledging that the digital asset defied his downward expectations. Cowen had hypothesized that rising energy prices and bond yields would force the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate hikes, boosting the U.S. dollar and pulling Bitcoin down. While macroeconomic factors like a strengthening dollar played out, Bitcoin decoupled from historical correlations and rallied alongside the dollar. Cowen reviewed historical rate-hike cycles from December 2015, September 2018, and 2022, observing that monetary tightening cycles did not lead to immediate selloffs in Bitcoin. In the current cycle, Bitcoin surged 50% from its summer lows, outperforming the ~40% recoveries seen in previous midterm cycles and printing a structural higher high. Consequently, Cowen stated that the burden of proof has shifted firmly onto market bears. He indicated that significant fourth-quarter downside for Bitcoin would likely require a broader stock market correction rather than occurring in isolation.