Big Tech Priced at Perfection into Earnings

Swissquote warns that geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices are reshaping market risk and investor positioning ahead of Big Tech earnings. Crude near $100/bbl and oil roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels are lifting inflation expectations and complicating central-bank plans, with the Fed seen likely to hold and now not expected to cut until December. Big Tech has proven relatively resilient and is being treated as a “safe harbour,” pushing the US Tech 100 higher, but valuations are again elevated and “priced to perfection” into earnings. AI spending and circular investment flows around Anthropic/OpenAI support chipmakers and cloud providers, yet profitability for the AI ecosystem remains distant. The upcoming earnings season is pivotal: strong results could mask macro weakness, while disappointments could trigger a sharp rotation away from tech.