Big IPOs unlikely to disrupt returns in the tech sector: Barclays

Barclays says investor worries that large tech IPOs will siphon demand from listed mega-cap tech stocks are overblown and unlikely to meaningfully disrupt sector returns. An event study of prior U.S. tech IPO waves finds no strong link between IPO ramp-ups (defined as non-overlapping peaks in six‑month aggregate fundraising for deals ≥ $100m) and tech versus S&P 500 relative performance. Barclays argues IPO supply is typically a small fraction of firm market value and is absorbed in strong markets with healthy capital flows. The bank highlights that competitive dynamics around AI — not new-issue supply — will remain the primary driver of tech sector performance. The note references speculation around potential listings such as OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX but concludes these would probably not materially crowd out flows into listed names.