Bernstein remains bullish on SpaceX but sees challenges in telecom ambitions

Bernstein remains constructive on SpaceX, keeping an Outperform rating and a $248 price target, but its note highlights major technical and commercial hurdles in SpaceX’s planned direct-to-device (D2D) mobile business. The firm argues that satellite-to-phone service still faces unresolved physics constraints, including free-space path loss, handset battery drain, and antenna gain limitations, making it unlikely to match terrestrial network performance soon. Bernstein says D2D can be a useful supplemental coverage layer in remote areas, but it is not yet a viable primary wireless alternative. The report has implications for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, which would face competition from a SpaceX-led entrant if the mobile plan succeeds. Bernstein’s preferred path is a partnership or MVNO model rather than a standalone nationwide network build. Near-term catalysts are SpaceX’s V2 constellation rollout and any formal partnership announcement, while the firm’s broader bullish thesis remains tied mainly to launch dominance and AI-linked orbital data centers.