Benjamin Cowen Reveals Why The Altcoin Season Never Came

Benjamin Cowen argues the 2025 cycle differed because Bitcoin topped on apathy, not euphoria, which prevented the usual post-peak rotation into altcoins. Despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high (~$126,000) on schedule, social engagement was low and liquidity conditions were tight, so capital consolidated into Bitcoin rather than flowing into higher-risk altcoins. Cowen compares 2025 to 2019 — both occurred in a late business-cycle, risk-off environment — and finds similar patterns (liquidity risk ~0.789). He keeps the four‑year cycle intact and sets a base-case cycle low around October 2026. Market impact: limited retail participation and tight liquidity suppress altcoin rallies and favor Bitcoin relative strength, suggesting muted altcoin performance until macro conditions improve.