Barclays Predicts Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement Before December

Barclays analyst Dan Levy forecasts that an announcement regarding a potential merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX could occur before December, ahead of Tesla's annual shareholder meeting. The prospective combination seeks vertical integration across artificial intelligence, shared engineering, and battery supply. However, prediction markets express skepticism, with Kalshi pricing a 19% probability and Polymarket showing a 24% chance before year-end. Observers also cite significant regulatory, shareholder approval, and governance hurdles, highlighting Elon Musk's roughly 85% voting control in SpaceX compared with approximately 19.9% in Tesla.