B3 to Launch Bitcoin-Linked Prediction Contracts as Brazil Bans Polymarket and Kalshi

Brazil’s main exchange B3 launched six federally regulated “Event Contracts” on April 27, including contracts linked to bitcoin, the Ibovespa (spot/mini futures) and the Brazilian real. The move follows CMN Resolution nº 5,298 (published April 24, effective May 4) which bans derivatives tied to sports, political and entertainment events while preserving financial-asset derivatives. ANATEL has already blocked 28 foreign prediction platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, clearing a domestic beachhead for B3. Contracts are cash-settled, price-capped at 100 BRL (~$19) and limited to professional investors (≥10 million BRL or CVM-certified). The action centralizes prediction-market demand in regulated venues and could channel significant crypto-related volume to B3 while reducing unlicensed offshore competition.