Australian Dollar Medium-Term Outlook: Goldman Sachs Expects AUD/NZD to Retreat

Goldman Sachs expects AUD/NZD to drift lower over the medium term, despite near-term support from rising energy prices and Australia’s commodity exposure. The call is driven by stronger-than-expected New Zealand inflation, which increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike rates in September and again in December. Goldman now sees the RBNZ policy rate reaching 3.00%, a shift that should strengthen the New Zealand dollar and narrow support for the cross. AUD/NZD was trading around 1.2098, up about 0.3% on the day, but still down 0.7% in July while remaining more than 4% higher in 2026. Goldman prefers expressing the view via longer-dated put options rather than short-dated trades because Australian CPI and commodity prices could keep the pair elevated in the near term.