Australian business confidence remains deeply pessimistic, -24 in April (prior -29)

NAB's monthly survey shows Australian business confidence remains deeply negative, edging to -24 in April from -29, while business conditions slipped to +3. Forward orders, capex and hiring intentions weakened (forward orders down 4 points in April, capex down 8 points — the largest post-COVID fall), signalling softer activity that could weigh on domestic demand and equities. Cost inflation is acute: purchase costs rose at a quarterly pace of 4.5% versus selling price growth of 1.8%, with retail prices accelerating to 3.2% from 0.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already hiked the cash rate three times to 4.35%, leaving policymakers balancing higher input-cost-driven inflation against deteriorating activity. Market implication: stagflationary risks and margin compression create downside pressure on Australian assets (including the Australia 200 index) and complicate RBA policy — markets will watch whether weakening activity gives the bank cover to pause or whether consumer price acceleration keeps tightening bias intact.