Australia Prepares Simultaneous CPI Releases as Markets Price 65% Chance of RBA Hike

Financial markets are positioning ahead of Australia's simultaneous release of September monthly and third-quarter inflation figures. Official data is projected to show headline monthly inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-on-year, driven by rising fuel and energy costs. The Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred underlying inflation gauge, the quarterly trimmed mean, is forecast to increase 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and hold steady at 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding the central bank's earlier 0.8% quarterly estimate. Markets are pricing a 65% probability of a rate hike at the RBA's upcoming policy meeting, where a higher core reading could fuel further hawkish expectations.