Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5%

Australia is scheduled to release its August labour force data on Thursday, with markets anticipating a solid employment rebound of approximately 20,000 jobs following July's unexpected decline of 16,000. Forecasts across major institutions range from 10,000 to 47,000, with Westpac taking a more bullish stance at 30,000. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.5%, supported by an assumed participation rate of 66.9%. This labor release arrives at a critical juncture, directly preceding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming interest rate decision. Markets broadly anticipate the RBA will raise the cash rate from 4.35%. A strong employment figure is expected to solidify expectations for policy tightening, whereas a surprise contraction or jump in unemployment could dampen future hike expectations and pressure the Australian dollar and short-dated bond yields.