AUD/NZD Nears 1.25 as Big Four Align on RBA September Hike, Australian Jobs Data Comes Into Focus

Australia's Big Four banks—NAB, Westpac, CBA, and ANZ—have aligned in forecasting a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September, which would lift the official cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, reaching its highest level since 2011. The shift follows hawkish testimony from RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who highlighted materializing upside inflation risks driven by higher oil prices and supply chain demands linked to AI investments. Market pricing for a September hike has consequently surged from roughly 30% before July CPI to around 90%. The macroeconomic debate is now pivoting toward the terminal rate, with ANZ projecting an additional hike to 4.85% in November, while CBA and Westpac view further tightening as contingent on incoming data. In the currency markets, AUD/NZD has rallied to its highest levels since April 2013, testing the 1.245 to 1.250 region. From a technical perspective, AUD/NZD faces significant resistance across the 1.2500–1.2608 zone, with daily RSI exceeding 80 pointing to overbought conditions. The pair remains structurally bullish above support at 1.2274, with the upcoming August employment figures and the October 28 CPI report serving as key catalysts.