AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-day SMA below mid-109.00s after range breakdown

AUD/JPY is under pressure, falling to its lowest level since late March near 109.35-109.40 before stabilizing around 110.00, still down about 0.50% on the day. The move is driven by stronger Japanese yen demand after suspected joint US-Japan FX intervention and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may keep tightening policy. At the same time, diminished odds of an immediate RBA rate hike are weighing on the Australian dollar. Technically, the pair broke below a nearly four-month trading range, with MACD turning more negative. However, the daily RSI is near oversold territory, and the 200-day SMA around 109.25 is seen as the key support to watch. A clear break below that level could open the door to deeper losses, while rebounds may stall near 111.15-111.25.