AUD/CAD: Two Hawkish Central Banks, One Triangle Left to Break

AUD/CAD is approaching a decisive technical breakout as both the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are supported by hawkish central-bank narratives and strong domestic data. The Australian dollar is backed by expectations of one final RBA hike, while Canada’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP and July employment data have fueled speculation the Bank of Canada may also tighten further if energy prices remain high. On the chart, AUD/CAD has compressed into a symmetrical triangle near 0.9847, with the 100-period EMA converging at the same level. A break above 0.9858 could target the 0.9926 high, while a break below 0.9837 opens downside toward 0.9816 and potentially 0.9786 or 0.9748. The article suggests the pair is coiled for a directional move, with the next catalyst likely coming from Australia’s jobs data and whichever central bank appears less hawkish.