AUD/CAD Targeting Parity as Peace Optimism, Falling Oil and RBA-BoC Divergence Align

AUD/CAD is rallying toward parity as risk-on ‘peace optimism’ and lower oil prices boost AUD while undermining CAD. Falling Brent crude (geopolitical premium unwinding) removes a key support for the Canadian dollar, while global equity rallies (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Asian markets) favour pro-cyclical AUD. Monetary divergence reinforces the move: the RBA has tightened aggressively (three hikes to 4.35% with projections toward 4.7%), whereas the BoC appears more constrained. Technically, the medium-term uptrend from 0.8440 is resuming toward 0.9991 (2021 high); parity is a realistic objective and a decisive break would confirm resumption of the long-term uptrend from the 2020 low (0.8058). Near-term projection target is 1.0204 and the next medium-term target is 1.0373.