AUD/CAD Risks Deeper Correction if RBA Tightening Bias Doesn’t Survive

The article argues AUD/CAD faces downside risk if the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Tuesday hold at 4.35% fails to preserve its tightening bias. The rate decision is expected to be a non-event; markets will instead focus on policy statement language and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy for clues on whether the RBA still sees upside inflation risks and leaves the door open to another hike. A softer tone or clearer peak-rate language would likely weigh on AUD more than a hawkish hold would support it. Technically, AUD/CAD has lost upside momentum near 0.9991 resistance. A break below 0.9721 would signal a corrective phase and open a deeper decline toward 0.9555, while a break above 0.9991 would invalidate the bearish correction case. CAD could also benefit from stronger Canadian jobs data and firmer oil.