AUD/CAD Analysis: Atypical Volume Casts Doubt on Triangle Breakout

The AUD/CAD currency pair has exhibited a pronounced uptrend on its four-hour chart, recently breaking out of a converging triangle pattern and pushing past the market profile's upper boundary at 0.9950. However, analysts at FXOpen highlight that atypical volume dynamics during the pattern's development cast doubt on the breakout's reliability. Furthermore, momentum indicators such as RSI and Moving Averages show mixed readings, failing to confirm robust bullish continuation toward the next major resistance level at 0.9985. Fundamentally, divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains the primary catalyst. Australia's July inflation print of 3.5% year-on-year exceeded forecasts of 3.2%, prompting NAB to predict a 25-basis-point rate hike to 4.6% in September. In contrast, the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25%, citing economic uncertainties tied to US tariffs. Should the breakout prove false, AUD/CAD could retrace into its market profile, testing the Point of Control at 0.9935 and lower boundary at 0.9910.