Atlanta Fed GDPNow initial estimate for Q3 is set at 5.0%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model gives an initial estimate of 5.0% annualized real GDP growth for U.S. Q3 2026, signaling a strong start to the quarter but with limited data and the potential for sharp revisions over the next three months. The note also highlights that the model accurately tracked Q2 growth, where the final estimate and the BEA advance reading both came in at 1.5%. For markets, the report supports a still-resilient U.S. growth backdrop, which may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, yields, and rate-sensitive assets. The next GDPNow update is scheduled for August 3.