AST SpaceMobile's Japan Catalyst Puts Its Rollout Story Back in Focus

AST SpaceMobile shares jumped 21% on June 29 after Japan announced a subsidy of up to 148 billion yen, or about $912 million, for a Rakuten-led satellite communications project. The news reignited interest in AST SpaceMobile’s partnership with Rakuten and its plan to pursue regulatory approval for direct-to-device (D2D) service in Japan, with initial commercial services expected in 2026 and a broader rollout in 2027. The article also notes near-term operational catalysts, including the planned launch of BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 in the first half of August, supporting the company’s target of 45 satellites in orbit by end-2026. Despite the catalyst and improved rollout visibility, Wall Street remains cautious: consensus rating is Reduce, with only modest implied upside and short interest still elevated at 20.35% of float.