Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Going to $1 Million After an AI Credit Bust

Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million, but only after an AI-driven credit bust triggers a liquidity response from the Fed and Treasury. He says AI data-center spending resembles a leveraged real-estate bubble more than a dot-com equity bubble, with risk concentrated in loans to hyperscalers and data-center builders. If credit growth slows in 2027 and weak borrowers begin to default, Hayes expects policymakers to step in with emergency lending and possibly direct asset purchases, effectively printing money and boosting Bitcoin. He also reiterated a $5,000 Ethereum target for end-2026, citing Ethereum’s role as a settlement layer for tokenized real-world assets. The article frames the outlook as a long-term bullish thesis for BTC, though Hayes warns there could still be a significant drawdown first, with Bitcoin potentially revisiting $40,000 before any larger rally.