April’s stock-market rebound is about to face its first major test as earnings season swings into gear

The article warns that April’s stock-market rebound may be tested as first-quarter earnings season begins. Rising analyst EPS estimates have helped support the S&P 500, but geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict and a jump in U.S. inflation (March CPI +0.9% month, 3.3% y/y) raise doubts about the Federal Reserve cutting rates and add downside risk. Big banks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo) will kick off reporting, and the market is looking for roughly 13% Q1 earnings growth while analysts now expect about 19% full-year 2026 earnings growth (up from ~15.5% in January). Early positive corporate reports (e.g., Delta, Levi Strauss) offer some relief, but investors will watch guidance closely for signs the conflict or higher energy prices are denting consumer spending. Overall, the piece frames a mixed outlook: earnings could underpin further gains, but inflation and geopolitics create meaningful downside risks.