Analysts Warn Tesla's $25B+ 2026 Capex Risks Cash Burn, 61% Downside

Tesla raised its 2026 capex guidance to over $25 billion, alarming analysts who label the spending 'runaway, unsustainable' amid expected negative free cash flow for the rest of the year. J.P. Morgan holds underweight with a $145 target implying 61% downside, while Morgan Stanley projects $26.1 billion capex and $11.6 billion cash burn but deems investments essential for AI and autonomy. Q1 capex hit $2.5 billion versus $4.3 billion expected, with +$1.4 billion FCF and $44.7 billion cash balancing $7.78 billion debt, yet raising equity fundraising fears and capping near-term upside.