Analysts Expect Tesla Third-Quarter Deliveries to Drop 7% Year-Over-Year to 461,000

Tesla is scheduled to release its third-quarter delivery report on Friday, with FactSet consensus estimates projecting 461,000 electric vehicle deliveries. This represents a 7% year-over-year decline from 497,000 units in the third quarter of 2025 and an approximate 4% sequential drop from the second quarter. The anticipated sales decline follows the expiration of U.S. federal tax credits in late 2025, slowing consumer demand, and internal operational shifts toward humanoid robot manufacturing. Goldman Sachs estimates that European registrations fell 25% to 35% year-over-year, while deliveries in China contracted in the high teens.