Analyst Labels MSFT Earnings 'Mirage' as OpenAI, Anthropic Dominate 50% of $627B Backlog

Microsoft shares hover near $414 as analysts decry Q3 earnings as a 'mirage' driven by OpenAI and Anthropic deals accounting for ~50% of hyperscalers' cloud backlogs ($627B for MSFT), amid negative free cash flow and record debt issuance. The story progressed from March's OpenAI-fueled Azure growth (39%, $625B RPO with 45% tied) through April's amended non-exclusive partnership—Evercore positive at $580 PT, UBS cautious ($510 PT) seeing Amazon wins—to May's Q3 beat ($82.9B revenue +18% YoY, Azure +40%, $37B AI run-rate +123%, RPO +99% to $627B) tempered by flat 39-40% guidance and $190B 2026 capex. RBC held $460 PT on multi-model pivots, but concentration risks persist.