Analysis-Peru’s presidential runoff may hinge on small gold miners seeking continued loose regulations

Peru’s presidential runoff could be decided by half a million informal gold miners who benefit from REINFO, an administrative program that lets small miners operate without full environmental permits. The program, created in 2016 and slated to expire Dec. 31, has been repeatedly extended as global gold prices rose; informal miners produced about $11 billion of gold exports in 2025 (roughly half Peru’s total). Both runoff candidates are courting miners, making regulatory continuity probable. Markets should watch for policy continuity or reform: continued loose rules could sustain informal gold supply and local incomes but deepen governance, environmental and legal risks that have already delayed large projects. A 2025 purge removed over 50,000 permit-holders but the system largely regenerated (1,005 revoked individuals now act as legal representatives; 1,255 companies continued operating), underscoring weak enforcement. The political clout of artisanal miners poses downside risks to investment and project timelines (Peru has ~$63 billion in projects in the pipeline; the $2.6 billion Los Chancas project has been delayed), potentially affecting miners’ equities and regional investment sentiment.