America’s Money Printing Could Start: How Will Markets React?

Arthur Hayes argues U.S. dollar liquidity may be turning positive after the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) came into effect on April 1, 2026, giving large banks more room to expand balance sheets and hold Treasuries. This change could seed liquidity via banking-system plumbing before any headline quantitative easing, supporting risk assets. The Fed remained cautious—holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29—because oil and geopolitical risks could keep inflation elevated. If U.S.–Iran tensions ease and oil stabilizes, Hayes expects Bitcoin to react quickly as a clean expression of dollar liquidity/debasement trades, while banks, big tech and gold could also benefit. If the conflict escalates, oil-driven inflation would keep volatility high and limit easing’s market impact.