AMD Q1 Preview: I Own It, But I'm Not Adding More Before The Print

The author remains long-term bullish on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.OQ) but is downgrading the near-term rating ahead of AMD’s Q1 2026 earnings due May 5, citing limited upside and the risk of another double-digit selloff. The writer holds a small position (1.8% of net liquid value) after a recent 51% gain and will not add to it before the print. Key near-term headwinds include sharply lower MI308 China sales versus Q4 and significant local competition; the author also questions AMD’s ~50x forward earnings multiple as pricing in future growth. Ultimate upside is seen as contingent on MI450 and Helios execution and anticipated tailwinds from customers/partners such as Meta and Oracle later in 2026–27. Overall this is a cautious, mixed-tone preview with potential for volatility around the earnings event.