Amazon's Trillion-Dollar Capex Gamble vs Shopify's Lean Profitability Strategy

The article compares Amazon and Shopify after Q1 2026 earnings, highlighting two different strategies in commerce and AI. Amazon beat revenue and EPS estimates, with AWS reaccelerating to 28% growth and capex surging to $44.2 billion as it expands AI infrastructure, custom chips, and cloud capacity. Shopify also beat revenue expectations, with GMV topping $100.7 billion and revenue growth accelerating to 34%, but it pursued an asset-light model with only $5 million in capex, strong free cash flow, and buybacks. The market’s focus is on whether Amazon’s massive investment will pay off through higher AWS margins and AI demand, versus whether Shopify’s lean profitability can sustain growth and credit performance. Amazon has been under pressure post-earnings due to capex concerns, while Shopify has partially recovered from its dip.