AI Trade Hits Speed Bump as Debt-Fueled Capex Surge Persists

The AI infrastructure boom has entered a new phase with mounting concerns over spending efficiency and guidance risk. After Nvidia's $25 billion bond sale and a broader $300 billion-plus wave of AI-related debt issuance, hyperscalers guided to $700-725 billion in 2026 capex and JPMorgan lifted its 2030 forecast to $5.5 trillion. Latest commentary from Dan Niles flags a potential September "speed bump" as budgets shift toward semiconductor suppliers, Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2 percent, and investors question whether returns can keep pace with rising leverage at names such as Oracle and SpaceX.