AI Capex Boom Drives Hottest ETF Trade Into Semiconductors, Not Crypto

Retail investors have poured into semiconductor ETFs as AI capex from hyperscalers fuels a structural shift away from crypto products. J.P. Morgan-sourced data show about $3.2 billion of retail net buying into four semiconductor ETFs since January 2025, with hyperscaler 2026 capex guidance of $600–$720 billion (≈75% toward AI infrastructure) underpinning demand for chips and memory. April 2026 saw record chip-fund inflows (about $5.5 billion split between SMH and SOXX) and a roughly 38.7% rise in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), while Bitcoin and Ethereum spot funds recorded weaker flows (Bitcoin near $2 billion in April). High volume in leveraged semiconductor ETFs (SOXL/SOXS) signals both aggressive positioning and hedging, raising caution on decay risk. Market impact: bullish for semiconductor-related stocks (e.g., NVDA, MU, TSM) and ETF flows, while crypto ETFs lag and may underperform if AI-driven capex continues to redirect retail capital.