AI and real GDP: how big and how fast?

The article argues that the AI investment boom is already materially affecting markets and macro data: rapid growth in computer equipment and software investment and a concentrated surge in semiconductor revenues—driven mainly by Nvidia and memory makers such as Micron—are underpinning a strong chip cycle. However, the author cautions that GDP statistics likely understate AI’s true output because of fast-falling inference prices and measurement issues; one estimate even puts a 4 percentage-point upward revision to 2025 real GDP as an upper bound. SoftBank’s €75bn pledge to build French data centres is cited as a potentially important Europe-focused development. Market implications: substantial upside for select semiconductor names and data-centre-related investments, but with risks from import-intensive capex, uncertain productive use of AI output, and a concentrated—not broad-based—sectoral gain.