African Protests Spread Fuel Crisis, Adding Fresh Risk Premium to Oil

Protests have now spread across multiple African countries as a deepening fuel crisis raises risks of local supply disruptions and adds a political risk premium to oil. The story began May 14 with warnings that just-in-time oil markets had grown fragile due to lean inventories and minimal spare capacity. By May 18 Jeff Currie warned an existing deficit could become a physical shortage within weeks as distillates hit minimum operational levels, while European jet-fuel concerns eased after refiners increased output. Attention shifted May 19 to three macro risks—persistent oil shock, stronger growth data, and aggressive central-bank tightening—before protests emerged as the latest supply-side threat.