According to Warren Buffett’s math the stock market is officially in ‘playing with fire’ territory. So when is the next crash coming?

The article warns that, by Warren Buffett’s valuation yardstick, U.S. equities are in “playing with fire” territory. The Buffett Indicator (total market cap/GDP) is reported at about 227% while the S&P 500 has rebounded to a near record of 7,165. Corporate profits are running at ~12% of GDP versus a historical 7–8%, and the S&P’s forward GAAP P/E exceeds 28 versus a ~100-year average near 17. The piece argues these elevated profits and P/Es are unlikely to persist and that mean reversion could drive notable downward pressure on the market; it cites prior episodes (dot-com peak, 2021) that produced double-digit to ~50% declines. No timing is given, but the outlook is cautionary for investors.