90% of economists expect RBNZ hike on September 2, poll shows

According to a Reuters poll conducted between August 20 and 27, approximately 90% of economists (27 of 31) expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its upcoming September 2 meeting. This would mark the central bank's second consecutive rate hike following a prolonged pause. Additionally, two-thirds of surveyed forecasters anticipate at least one more rate increase before year-end, lifting the benchmark rate to a median of 3.00%. The primary driver behind the anticipated tightening is persistent inflation, which climbed to a two-and-a-half-year peak of 4.1% in the latest quarter, well above the central bank's 1% to 3% target band. Economists do not anticipate inflation returning within the target range this year due to upward pressures on energy prices. While housing market performance remains subdued, an expected economic rebound to 0.4% quarterly growth provides the RBNZ sufficient policy headroom to tighten monetary policy without severely dampening activity.